The Siebel Observer
April 17, 2003

Special Edition

The Case of the Missing Documents

Could Tom Siebel be Montana's Next Governor?

Siebel Systems Reports Disappointing Sales

Peoplesoft Misses Earnings

Daon Joins Siebel Alliance Program

Syntel Joins Siebel Alliance Program

Nucleus Research Publishes SAP Survey

An Interview with Headstrong's Charles Sword

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The Case of the Missing Documents

Internal documents containing negative customer comments about Siebel 7 were leaked to the press last week. Eight pages of a seventy-five page internal survey were hand delivered to select members of the trade and financial press.

By Wednesday, Briefing.com had broken the story by reporting that an "internal Siebel memo citing negative customer satisfaction reviews is floating around trading desks."

This caused Siebel Systems to hold a impromptu press conference to go public with the information. The leaked study was commissioned in the fall for internal use. Since that time the company has released Siebel 7.5 software, which addresses some of the original complaints.

Siebel Systems is conducting its own investigation of the incident and has also contacted the Federal Bureau of Investigation for their help in determining who leaked the documents.

Montana Map

Could Tom Siebel be Montana's Next Governor?

Despite statements to the contrary, rumors persist that Tom Siebel may run for Governor of the State of Montana. On the surface, a Siebel bid to head the fourth largest state is not farfetched.

To begin with, Siebel has strong ties with the state. Former Montana Governor Marc Racicot, who now heads the Republican National Committee, is a Siebel Systems (Nasdaq SEBL) board member. Siebel and his wife Stacey own two large Montana ranches, the Dearborn Ranch, and the N Bar Ranch, which together cover about 135,000 acres. The Siebels have also been active in philanthropic efforts in the state, recently contributing $1 million to the Montana Community Foundation to provide scholarships.

"These are real people that care about other people, and the valuable asset that they bring to the state of Montana in their philanthropic giving is something we don't often see," said the current governor, Judy Martz.

Siebel's talent for creating jobs would be especially welcome in a state ranked 48th in total gross state product and 49th in exports. Already Siebel is spending $10 million a year to maintain his holdings as working ranches, employing about 500 contractors for construction, fencing, and environmental cleanup, according to the Helena Independent Record.

Speculation that Siebel might run for Governor started when he attended the Western Governors' Association Winter Meeting in Nevada and someone at Siebel Systems leaked the story to C/Net.

Even though it makes a good story, there are several reasons to doubt its accuracy. First, Siebel would have to establish residency in Montana. Second, the current Governor is also a Republican. Although her term expires in 2004 and she has not announced her intentions to run for re-election, a bid now would most likely split the Republican party in Montana. When asked about Siebel's intention to run, Senator Ken Miller, the head of Montana Republican Party replied, "No. He has not talked with me about that possibility."

Graph

Siebel Systems Reports Disappointing Sales

Siebel Systems (Nasdaq: SEBL) pre-announced earnings below analysts' expectations. Based on preliminary information, total revenues for the quarter are expected to be $330 to $335 million, about 10% below the consensus estimate. Total license revenue is expected to be $112 million, about 16% below expectations.

"This reflected the uncertainty of our clients about their business," Tom Siebel told a conference call of analysts. "Two or three large deals did not get closed when the bell rang at midnight on the last day of quarter."

The news was not a complete surprise to Wall Street, given the earnings warnings given by twenty other software companies earlier in the week, including PeopleSoft (Nasdaq: PSFT), WebMethods (Nasdaq: WEBM), Sybase (Nasdaq: SY) and Parametric Technology (Nasdaq: PMTC). In trading on Monday, shares in Siebel Systems rose as short sellers moved to cover their trading positions.

As a company Siebel Systems remains strong financially. Even though it did not meet expectations, the company was profitable in the quarter and has $2.22 billion in cash and short term notes - an increase of about $60 million in the quarter.

Siebel Systems plans to release first-quarter results at 2:00 Pacific Time, on April 23.

PeopleSoft Logo

Peoplesoft Revenues to be Lower Than Expected

PeopleSoft, Inc. (Nasdaq: PSFT) preannounced earnings below analysts' expectations. Based on preliminary information, total revenues for the quarter are expected to be $450 to $455 million, about 6% below the consensus estimate. More significantly, total license revenue is expected to be between $80 to $85 million, about 36% below expectations. The news came as a surprise to many in the investment community.

Earnings are expected to be in the $0.11-$0.12 range. In theory, market prices must maintain a relationship with earnings. They cannot drift away indefinitely. PeopleSoft is a solid company with good products, loyal customers, and talented employees. But can it justify a P/E ratio of 25 when days of high growth may be over?

This may be one of the questions analysts ask when PeopleSoft announces its final first quarter financial results on April 22, 2003.

Daon Logo

Daon Announces Joint Offering with Siebel Systems for Border Management Agencies

Daon, the biometric authentication solutions provider, has joined the Alliance Program as a Base Software Partner. Daon's DaonEngine integration has also been validated with Siebel Homeland Security 7 and Siebel Government 7.

The alliance formalizes the joint effort between the two companies to address the needs of border management agencies. In November the United States Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) issued an RFI for a system to capture and disseminate information about the 250,000,000 people who visit the United States annually. If a system is adopted, there is every reason to think governments around the world will adopt similar systems to control their borders more carefully.

Founded before the 9/11 attack, Daon products support the capture and recognition of biometric information with iris, facial, fingerprint, and voice-recognition technologies. Siebel Homeland Security applications allow border management agencies to manage biometric information and perform analyses, such as cross-referencing a visa application with law enforcement watch lists and databases.

"Daon is a leader in the field of biometrics and a natural fit for Siebel Systems," said Thomas Gann, Siebel Systems' Vice President and General Manager for Public Sector and Homeland Security.

The joint solution significantly increases the ability of government agencies to prevent and detect passport and visa fraud, and log the arrivals and departures of foreign visitors.

The joint solution can also be configured to require agents using the system to provide their own biometric information before accessing the Siebel Government and Siebel Homeland Security applications, thus enhancing system security.

The privately held Daon is based in New York City, with facilities in Dublin and London.

Syntel Logo

Syntel Joins Siebel Alliance Program

Syntel (Nasdaq: SYNT) has joined the Siebel Alliance Program as a consulting partner. Syntel has also certified some consultants to ensure that they have the expertise necessary to position, install, configure, operate, maintain, and interface Siebel applications.

Syntel's practice areas include business requirement assessment; configuration, customization, and integration of modules; and ongoing application support. To better serve large organizations, Syntel makes use of centers in the US, Europe, and Asia to facilitate 24/7 support. This allows projects to be completed faster, with cost savings that Syntel estimates to be at least 15-20% of the cost of projects completed entirely on-site.

"Siebel Systems' commitment to customer satisfaction and market leadership have significantly impacted the way companies do business," said Atul Kunwar, Syntel COO.

Syntel was launched in 1980 by Bharat Desai, who used $2,000 in savings to place contract programmers in local businesses. In 1992, Syntel opened its first Global Development Center in Mumbai, India. Working closely with a Syntel customer, American International Group (AIG), the company leveraged local technology talent in Mumbai and a 12-hour time zone difference to run projects around-the-clock. In 1997, Syntel launched its initial public offering with the sale of 3.45 million shares of stock. For the last quarter of 2002, Syntel reported revenue of $39 million, compared to $43 million in in the 2001 fourth quarter. Earnings in the quarter were $11 million compared to $2 million in the same period a year ago. With 38.38 million shares outstanding, Syntel today has a market cap of $658 million - quite a good return on a $2,000 investment.

Nucleus Research Logo

Nucleus Research Publishes SAP Survey

Despite having used SAP (Nasdaq: SAP) applications for nearly three years, more than half of SAP's reference customers have yet to realize a positive return on their investment, according to Nucleus Research. This was the latest in a series of independent studies Nucleus Research has conducted in the software industry on companies such as Manugistics, i2, Cognos, and Siebel Systems.

As always, the small size of the survey sample has caused critics to question Nucleus' research. Nucleus reviewed the SAP web site for companies listed as references. Out of a pool of 93 companies mentioned on the site, 21 agreed to participate in the study. Given that SAP has 19,000 customers, this is a sample size of one tenth of one percent. Yet the Nucleus' methodology does seem to confirm anecdotal evidence that SAP implementations are long and expensive.

The survey respondents spent on average more than $5.4 million on licenses and consulting fees. Consulting costs averaged more than $3.6 million. The study also found respondents who customized the application less and spent less money on consulting were more likely to receive a positive ROI.

The standard methodology Nucleus' analysts follow is to conduct a series of in-depth interviews with reference customers, without the vendor's knowledge. Nucleus interviewed customers representing a cross-section of SAP's ERP systems and individual modules like CRM.

In studies of reference customers, as was the case with Cognos, a majority of respondents sometimes do report significant ROI. Yet even those who question the methodology have a hard time questioning the influence of the studies. Over 500,000 copies of the i2 report were downloaded.

The full report is available from Nucleus Research at: www.NucleusResearch.com

Headstrong Logo

An Interview with Charles Sword of Headstrong

To help give us some perspective on recent news, we asked Charles Sword of Headstrong to share his insights.

The Siebel Observer: There seems to be a lot of controversy over Siebel version 7 and how stable the product was when released. What have you and your team experienced with Siebel 7?

Charles Sword: Given the significant shift in the application architecture of Siebel 7 and the accelerated release cycles that are commonplace in the software industry today, I don't believe the application had more than its share of product defects. However, I believe the technology community likes to save its harshest criticism for anyone that achieves a dominant market position and over the past 5 years Siebel achieved a market position within CRM similar to Microsoft's dominance of business productivity software. I believe that that, along with a vocal minority of dissatisfied customers, helped put a spotlight on the shortcomings of the product.

The Siebel Observer: Is Siebel 7 any less stable than a major release from vendors like Microsoft, PeopleSoft, or Oracle?

Charles Sword: If you compared the defect rate for these products at similar maturity points in their product lifecycle I think you'd find a similar story. As mentioned above, I think Siebel invited an extra dose of scrutiny when they had the hubris to claim the title of the largest enterprise software firm in the world.

The Siebel Observer: Why do you think that Siebel Systems has these problems?

Charles Sword: I can sum it up simply: they grew too rapidly and in too many directions. They expanded the amount of functionality in the base, or horizontal, product and then compounded that with expansion into a dozen verticals. On top of this, they then lost focus on the core mission - to deliver the finest CRM software in the world - instead expanding into the employee portal, analytics, and integration markets almost simultaneously. Given their growth rate and this diffusion of focus, it was nearly impossible to maintain consistently high levels of quality and customer satisfaction.

As for the engineering team, I believe what they've achieved is borderline extraordinary given what's been asked of them. On the contrary, it's my opinion that the most significant issues have been caused by turnover in the sales organization and quality concerns associated with the Technical Account Manager (TAM) organization. These functions represent the 'face' of Siebel for most customers and I think they've fallen short of the standard set in the earlier years of the organization. Finally, Siebel suffered from what in essence is a 'technology generation gap'. By this, I'm referring to the cynicism and malaise that characterizes the employees that joined the fray too late to participate in the technology boom that ended in March 2001 and is hardly limited to Siebel. Many organizations are still suffering a cultural hangover from those heady days of seemingly limitless upside and technology idealism.

The Siebel Observer: Is Siebel 7.5 an improvement on Siebel 7?

Charles Sword: I believe the Universal Application Network (UAN) support found in Siebel 7.5 represents a significant shift in the Siebel product strategy over all previous versions of Siebel. Traditionally, Siebel integration capabilities have been limited in capability and challenging to execute and maintain. With the introduction of the UAN, Siebel has provided the platform for Siebel to become a true service component in an overall enterprise architecture - which is a significant shift. I believe that CRM will ultimately be viewed as more of an infrastructure layer that interacts with the process and application layer within your enterprise architecture, as opposed to an application in and of itself. This should also be the primary frame of reference for Siebel migration decisions. For most, there probably isn't enough incremental functionality to justify the investment required for migration. However, when viewed from a strategic platform and architecture perspective, the conversation shifts to how CRM services will be constructed and delivered in the future, and the benefits of migration to the improved Siebel 7.5 product begins to make a lot of sense.

The Siebel Observer: Is there anyway to recover from a failed Siebel implementation?

Charles Sword: People are successfully implementing CRM as a business strategy and many are achieving this using Siebel technology, so it is a reachable goal. However, for those who are struggling, I liken our role as a service provider to a doctor treating a patient. The key is to make a quick, accurate diagnosis based on the symptoms and prescribe an effective course of treatment. Often this will involve both tactical and strategic programs to address, for example, short term adoption woes and longer term return on investment concerns. Over the past half dozen years spent working on these initiatives and having achieved a 100% satisfaction rate, we've created an extensive case history of these symptoms and the most effective remedies.

The root causes of failed implementations are clustered into a few major categories which allow us to be very efficient and effective if we catch them early enough. By that, I mean that you only have so much user equity to expend and then I don't think you can overcome the negative perceptions. Organizations that have suffered multiple failures or acutely negative experiences have programs that are in some cases unrecoverable and are better served by a change in their technology platform at a minimum. But for most, there is hope if they see the right doctor.

The Siebel Observer: Tolstoy said all happy families are alike. Unhappy families are each unhappy in their own way. Is this true of Siebel implementations as well? Do those companies that fail at implementing Siebel tend to do so for different reasons?

Charles Sword: Amongst the unhappy Siebel children, we've noticed some definite trends that led to their discontent:

These are classic change management issues that result in what I characterize as 'organ rejection'. In these instances, the introduction of new processes and technology into an organization is rejected not on merit but in reaction to how the change is introduced.

The Siebel Observer: Have you seen any examples of companies that failed in their initial implementation but later were able to come back and be successful with Siebel?

Charles Sword: Absolutely. They range from the simplest cases where the issues were primarily performance-related or technical in nature to more complex cases that involve organizational alignment issues, change management shortcomings, and senior management ambivalence, all resting on poorly architected technology. In the former, recovery is often straightforward and can be achieved in very modest timeframes. In the latter example, the issues and the remedy are more complicated and in all likelihood will involve a larger commitment in terms of stakeholders and overall recovery time.

Charles Sword is Vice President of the CRM Practice at Headstrong Corporation. Correction




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