The Great Software Acquisition War
Enterprise software has always been a brutal gamble, requiring strong
nerves to play. The most common experience for most employees
of enterprise software is to work harder
than they ever have before, have good reason to anticipate
wealth, end up losing all the money they
invested in their own companies and, finally, to be dismissed for
their efforts. Many of the industry's leaders have shared
in this experience and some have even grown from it.
Strong nerves are also required of the customers, investors
and partners of enterprise software for whom the right decision
can make a career or the wrong one wreck it.
Currently, enterprise software is likely to be less of a gamble, but tends to be
more brutal than in the past. A conflict is breaking out among the leading vendors that
promises to grow into a world war. This is because the enormous
profitability of enterprise software is coming to an end. The days of 40-80%
profit margins are over; the industry is now having to accept margins of 9% and anticipate
further decline.
In any business with falling profit margins, scale becomes important.
Scale requires size, and size requires consolidation. Thanks to the
dot com boom, enterprise software is especially prone to consolidation,
since many companies are sitting on large amounts of cash that
can not be used to fund growth organically.
The opening salvo in the software acquisition war was fired when PeopleSoft
agreed to acquire J.D. Edwards for $1.7 billion in stock. In recent years,
the Denver-based J.D. Edwards has had a pattern of profitable quarters being
followed by unprofitable ones. Any hopes the board had of improvements in the company's
long term position were answered by a McKinsey & Company report
showing there would be little place for the company in a massive industry
consolidation.
In January 2002, Bob Dutkowsky, a Boston-based industry veteran
with a 20 year tour-of-duty at IBM to his credit, was recruited
to be CEO of J.D. Edwards. More relevant to this story was his
experience after he left IBM. In 2001 Dutkowsky
sold GenRad to Teradyne, and in 1999 he sold Data General to EMC.
Dutkowsky has spent much of his tenure as CEO traveling and
has yet to move his family from Boston to Denver.
As an asset, J.D. Edward's greatest strengths are its understanding of
the manufacturing process, people-oriented culture and large customer base.
The company's greatest weakness is that many of J.D. Edward's customers
continue to use the AS/400 platform, putting them outside the industry mainstream.
After a long courtship, Dutkowsky was successful in persuading PeopleSoft
to make an offer, but only at a slight premium to J.D. Edward's trading price.
The advantage to PeopleSoft of merging the two companies was scale.
Combined, the companies would have $2.8 billion in annual revenues,
13,000 employees and more than 11,000 customers. The merger would also
expand PeopleSoft's industry expertise in manufacturing,
distribution and other asset-intensive industries, but at the cost
of having to support a much broader product line on more platforms.
There the matter would have ended had it not been for the dark prince of
software. Oracle's Larry Ellison
stepped in and set in motion a chain of events that is still unfolding
and promises to be nothing less than the great war of software. As was the case in the first Great War,
the participants may not be able to imagine how the map of the world will be
redrawn - nor can they imagine the great number of causalities.
Within days after the J.D. Edwards - PeopleSoft merger was announced,
Oracle Corporation launched a hostile take-over bid for PeopleSoft -
sans J.D. Edwards. The speed at which Oracle moved, the low offer price ($16 in cash),
and certain public statements of Larry's to the effect that he would
fire most of PeopleSoft's employees made some question his
sincerity. It is clear now that he is in deadly earnest.
Only a month ago, Ellison hired Morgan Stanley's leading software
industry analyst, Chuck Phillips. At the time, it was not apparent
what role he would take under the mercurial Ellison. Now it
seems certain he will act as Larry's chief of staff in the coming
acquisition wars. For, like the German General Staff in 1914, Oracle
has been drawing up plans for various contingencies. One of those
plans called for the acquisition of PeopleSoft.
PeopleSoft has much the same attraction for Oracle that J.D. Edwards
has for PeopleSoft. By combining their applications businesses, Oracle
will have more customers to sell more products to.
Oracle has made it also clear that J.D. Edwards is not an attractive
take-over candidate. Part of the reason for this is because of the AS/400 product base,
cultural incompatibilities and product overlap. If Oracle is successful
in taking over PeopleSoft, J.D. Edwards will be forced to find another
partner.
By the same token, PeopleSoft is not interested in being taken over by
Oracle. This is in part because many of its employees fear working for
the big O. Headquartered just outside the Bay area, it is not an exaggeration
to say that most PeopleSoft employees, such as CEO Craig Conway, have either
worked at Oracle or have had the opportunity and turned it down. For many
of them, the devil they don't know may be vastly preferable
to the devil they do know.
In a effort to ward off Oracle, PeopleSoft sweetened its offer to J.D. Edwards
by offering cash as well as stock and accelerating the closing. Oracle
has responded by raising the price it was offering to $19.50 per share.
"Oracle remains committed to acquiring PeopleSoft and will not be deterred
by management's maneuvers to maintain control of a company they do not own,"
said Larry Ellison in a printed statement.
Since both sides can not get what they want, this leads to some interesting
questions. If Oracle is successful, who will pick up J.D. Edwards? If PeopleSoft
is successful, will the cost be so great the victory is pyrrhic? If PeopleSoft
can not make the merger work, will the combined companies again end up on the market
in a few quarters? If Oracle raises the stakes yet again, will PeopleSoft find
a friendly suitor? And where will that leave J.D. Edwards? If Oracle isn't able
to acquire PeopleSoft, who will they attempt to take over next?
What is apparent is that whatever happens will dramatically affect other
company fortunes and individual careers. Fewer enterprise software companies means
fewer managers of alliances, fewer system integrators and fewer software engineers.
Now more than ever the software business requires strong nerves and
good sources of information.
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