The Siebel Observer
March 18, 2003

Special Edition

Wishful Thinking

Hasso Plattner Resigns as CEO

Concerto Software becomes a Strategic Software Partner

Syntel Joins Siebel Alliance Program

CORDA Technologies Joins Siebel Alliance Program

divine to Consider Other Alternatives Including Bankruptcy



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Spanish Armada

Wishful Thinking

This phoney war gets on my nerves. If weíre going to have a war, I wish theyíd get it started.

Hope and Glory

In the days between September 3, 1939 and May 10, 1940, many people in Europe experienced a period of uncertainty similar to our current interlude. The 10 months between the day France and Britain declared war on Germany and the day the Nazi army crossed the borders of France, Belgium, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands were known to the French as the drÙle de guerre (strange war), to the Germans as the Sitzkrieg (sitting war), and to the British as "the phoney war". During that time Britain and France made little effort to attack Hitler. Instead, a war of nerves was waged through dramatic peace overtures, leaflet dropping, and the occasional anaemic exchange of artillery fire.

In France internal opposition to a war mounted. Communist deputies urged the government to consider Hitler's peace proposals. By the Spring 1940, many people in Britain grew so tired of the uncertainty that they indulged in some wishful thinking, deciding that the war was never going to happen. A newspaper headline of the time suggested Forget Hitler: Take Your Holiday. Then almost overnight the uncertainty of the phoney war was replaced with less comforting certainties.

British Troop Captured at Dunkirk

It is not my intention here to examine the pros and cons of engaging in a ground war with Iraq other than to point out that the atmosphere it creates significantly influences the business climate. The principal force now determining demand for Siebel products and services is not IT budgets, client needs, or even the end of the CRM market. Individual reactions to uncertainty now determine the market. History demonstrates that one of the most common reactions to incertitude is to indulge in wishful thinking.

Unlike in 1914, when crowds cheered the declaration of war, the mood in Berlin in September 1939 was pensive and subdued, according to the CBS corespondent William Shirer. On paper the Allied armies were stronger and the Germans needed time to rebuild reserves, gather supplies, and train recruits after their fight with the Polish army. When nothing happened, the Germans engaged in the wishful thought that they could actually win a war against a numerically much stronger enemy. During the Sitzkrieg, the German army created 43 new infantry divisions and increased the number of their armoured divisions to 10. Thinking wishfully they would not have to fight, the Allies made half-hearted and sluggish military preparations. The French formed three times fewer divisions than the Germans. The British were slow to increase their army and even slower to get it to France. By October 1939 just four British divisions had arrived and by the beginning of 1940 only another six were deployed.

Time

The current climate has made some here in America indulge in wishful thinking. Perhaps the best sign of this has been the opinion, universally expressed in the press, that a U.S. victory is inevitable. (And perhaps the best reason for predicting that Saddam Hussein will remain in power is the Time Magazine cover story of March 10th: "Life After Saddam". These are, after all, the same people who predicted that merging with AOL would be such a great thing.) In the Spain of 1588 much the same sentiment must have been expressed about Queen Elizabeth I's chances of staying in power as the 'invincible' armada set sail for England.

Now in the Spring of 2003 some business leaders engage in the wishful thought that they can continue to hesitate and delay their decision-making until things return to normal. Others have already overcome their inertia. Readers have reported a strong increase in business in the last few weeks as their customers are no longer waiting for events to unfold in the Middle East to make their plans. However the war turns out in the long run, it is likely to have a positive effect on the Siebel market once the phoney war ends.

(Photo credit: U.S. National Archives)

SAP Logo

Hasso Plattner

Hasso Plattner Resigns as CEO

The last of SAP AG's (Nasdaq: SAP) founders is stepping down. Hasso Plattner will reliquinish his co-chief executive role and move to the SAP Supervisory Board on May 9. Plattner founded SAP with four co-workers from IBM in 1972.

Henning Kagermann

Plattner's co-CEO, Henning Kagermann, will continue as sole CEO. Kagermann is a physicist by training who does mathematical puzzles to relax. He began his career at SAP in 1982 in product development and was appointed to the Executive Board in 1991. As a board member he was initially responsible for the development of financial and accounting applications.

Having split the CEO position with Plattner for the last five years, most analysts expect Kagermann's transition into a new role to be smooth.

Morning Glory

Despite the change, Plattner will continue to challenge Larry Ellison around the world. The 59-year-old billionaire is an accomplished ocean yacht racer, and in January failed to show up for a meeting with analysts because of the Cape:2:Rio:03 race.

Concerto Logo

Concerto Software becomes a Strategic Software Partner

Concerto Software (Nasdaq: CRTO) has joined the Siebel Alliance Program as a strategic software partner. Concerto Software and Siebel Systems will jointly market a new package called Contact Center FastStart, which includes the Concerto EnsemblePro application, Siebel 7 Call Center, integration software, and implementation services. Concerto Software and Siebel Systems will continue selling their respective solutions independently.

The Contact Center FastStart solution is designed to be implemented more quickly than traditional call center technologies. Once installed, call center staff will be able to more easily access customer data while working with customers on the telephone or over the internet. This means the level of service provided can now be more closely based on customer value. Call center managers can also more easily use customer information, business rules, and agent skill sets to route contacts.

Concerto Software's EnsemblePro is a unified contact center solution that includes automatic call distribution (ACD), predictive dialing, interactive voice response (IVR), and web chat, as well as universal queuing, recording, and reporting. Siebel 7 Call Center provides organizations with industry-specific, best practices CRM applications software.

"Our shared focus on customer satisfaction is the foundation upon which the Concerto Software/Siebel Systems partnership is built," says Ralph Breslauer, Executive Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Concerto Software.

More than 1,200 companies worldwide use Concerto Software solutions. The company is headquartered in Westford, Massachusetts, with operations across North America, Europe, and Asia.

Syntel Logo

Syntel Joins Siebel Alliance Program

Syntel (Nasdaq: SYNT) has joined the Siebel Alliance Program as a consulting partner. Syntel has also certified some consultants to ensure that they have the expertise necessary to position, install, configure, operate, maintain, and interface Siebel applications.

Syntel's practice areas include business requirement assessment; configuration, customization, and integration of modules; and ongoing application support. To better serve large organizations, Syntel makes use of centers in the US, Europe, and Asia to facilitate 24/7 support. This allows projects to be completed faster, with cost savings that Syntel estimates to be at least 15-20% of the cost of projects completed entirely on-site.

"Siebel Systems' commitment to customer satisfaction and market leadership have significantly impacted the way companies do business," said Atul Kunwar, Syntel COO.

Syntel was launched in 1980 by Bharat Desai, who used $2,000 in savings to place contract programmers in local businesses. In 1992, Syntel opened its first Global Development Center in Mumbai, India. Working closely with a Syntel customer, American International Group (AIG), the company leveraged local technology talent in Mumbai and a 12-hour time zone difference to run projects around-the-clock. In 1997, Syntel launched its initial public offering with the sale of 3.45 million shares of stock. For the last quarter of 2002, Syntel reported revenue of $39 million, compared to $43 million in the 2001 fourth quarter. Earnings in the quarter were $11 million compared to $2 million in the same period a year ago. With 38.38 million shares outstanding, Syntel today has a market cap of $658 million - quite a good return on a $2,000 investment.

CORDA Logo

CORDA Technologies Joins Siebel Alliance Program

CORDA Technologies, the Utah-based developer of the PopChart visualization tools, has joined the Alliance Program as a software partner. The alliance will focus on CORDA's PopChart technology for use with the Siebel Analytics product line.

PopChart delivers interactive charts and graphs from databases and web application servers to browsers. The combination of Siebel Analytics and PopChart technology will improve dashboard environments and custom-designed business intelligence tools.

divine Logo

divine to Consider Other Alternatives including Bankruptcy

divine, inc. (Nasdaq: DVIN), the one time Internet incubator, has hired Broadview International, a merger and acquisitions firm specializing in information technology, to help it sell all or part of its business. Despite efforts over the past several months to minimize operating expenses, divine's board of directors determined that the company must seek other alternatives, including asset divestitures and/or filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. The news marks the beginning of the end for one of software's most promising business models.

divine was founded by the one of the most original men in the software business, Flip Filipowski. Filipowski dropped out of college his freshman year to support his new family and started work in one of Chicago's first data centers. He translated that start into one of the most successful careers in technology.

After managing Cullinet and starting DBMS,Inc., he founded Platinum Technology. Filipowski grew it in ten years from a startup to the eighth-largest software company in the world. In 1999, Filipowski sold Platinum Technology to Computer Associates for $3.6 billion.

He then founded divine based both on his vision of the extended enterprise and his constitutional inability to pass up a bargain. divine acquired many assets of failed dot coms in an effort to create a new company offering the next generation of software. The prolonged slump in technology spending put paid to this strategy. Although divine acquired software firms, content providers, and ASP's, in 2001 77% of divine's revenues came from professional services.

Some of the companies divine acquired included SageMaker, marchFIRST, DataBites, Fracta Networks, Open Market, eshare communications, Synchrony Communications, Intira Corporation, HostOne RoweCom, Eprise Corporation, SoftMetric, Data Return Corporation, Northern Light Technology, RWT Corporation, Delano Technology Corporation, and Vaint. divine is now involved in active discussions regarding the potential sale of these businesses.


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